Nebius stock drops 30% as $9B ARR goal raises concerns

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Nebius Group shares fell about 30% in October, leaving the artificial intelligence cloud provider nearly 36% below its recent peak near $300. In the second quarter of 2026, revenue reached $582.3 million, up 454% year over year, while the company targets $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion in full-year revenue and $7 billion to $9 billion in annualized run-rate revenue by year-end. To reach those goals, Nebius plans $20 billion to $25 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, funded partly by more than $9 billion in customer prepayments and through debt and equity, creating dilution risk. The company has more than $40 billion in confirmed customer contracts with Microsoft and Meta, but its heavy dependence on these two clients increases concentration risk. Investors will assess the third-quarter results, due on November 10, based on ARR growth, capacity deployment and the funding strategy.

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