Before any votes were counted in the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, Bitcoin traded near $76,990, about $3,821 above its 200-day moving average, while it was below that level during the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterms. Its position relative to the average therefore swung from 22% below in 2022 to 5.2% above, a 27.2-percentage-point reversal. The October employment report, scheduled for Friday, November 6 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, is the week’s second major test after the election results. A weekly close above the updated 200-day moving average would show that Bitcoin’s strongest midterm starting position since 2014 held through both challenges. The analysis is based on only three observations, which are insufficient to turn their average one-year gain of 53.7% into a price target.
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