The 2026 US midterm elections could reshape the outlook for equities and crypto, particularly if Donald Trump loses control of both the House and the Senate. Prediction markets assign roughly a 76% chance to a Democratic sweep, with Democrats priced at 94% to 95% to win the House and 76% to take the Senate. Since 1954, the S&P 500 has risen by an average of 2.1% in the month following all seven midterms in which the sitting president lost control of both chambers, and the index was higher three, six and twelve months later in every case. Bitcoin, however, fell more than 45% after the 2014 midterms, nearly 50% after the 2018 election and around 25% after the 2022 election, with the FTX crisis contributing heavily to the 2022 decline. One year after those three episodes, bitcoin was nevertheless approximately 24%, 45% and 92% higher, respectively, for an average twelve-month gain of about 54%.
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