JPMorgan estimates that a Democratic sweep of both chambers of Congress, which it considers the most likely midterm election outcome with a 66% probability, could lead the S&P 500 to fall by 0.25% or rise by 0.50%. A blue wave could also increase regulatory pressure on artificial intelligence companies while limiting the likelihood that legislation restricting data centers will overcome President Donald Trump’s veto. A Republican House combined with a Democratic Senate, assigned a 1% probability, would likely produce a 0.25% to 0.75% gain in the S&P 500 alongside legislative gridlock, budget disputes and the possibility of a government shutdown. The firm expects that whichever result emerges, Tuesday’s election will give investors greater clarity and reduce uncertainty.
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