Goldman Sachs projects that artificial intelligence could displace up to 9% of the US workforce over the next decade, representing roughly 15 million jobs. The forecast, published on October 22, 2026 under economist Joseph Briggs, raises the bank’s estimated displacement rate from 6%–7% to 9%. The most exposed sectors, including technology, management consulting, and graphic design, are already shedding 10,000–15,000 jobs per month as 23% of US establishments adopt artificial intelligence. The bank estimates that these job losses could increase the US unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points, with the effect likely to intensify during economic downturns. Chief Economist Jan Hatzius notes that about 85% of jobs created over the past 80 years came from roles that did not previously exist, suggesting that new occupations could emerge.
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