According to a model from Paris-based quantum computing firm Alice & Bob, roughly 30,000 physical qubits could be enough to derive a Bitcoin private key from its public key in just over an hour. The estimate, based on Shor’s algorithm and superconducting cat qubits, is about 17 times lower than the 500,000-physical-qubit upper bound advanced by Google Quantum AI in March 2026. No machine of this scale exists yet, but researchers estimate that fault-tolerant hardware could emerge in the early 2030s. In the meantime, about 30% of circulating bitcoin, or 6 million to 7.1 million BTC, is held in addresses with already exposed public keys, prompting calls to deploy quantum-resistant signatures now.
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