According to Brett Arends, a U.S. index fund, including a large-cap fund based on the S&P 500, has about a 25% chance of proving to be a poor investment, or worse, over the next ten years. The risk rises to about 14%, or one chance in seven, over a twenty-year period. The analysis challenges the belief that stocks will consistently rise over the long term. Wall Street avoids discussing this possibility, which could surprise a generation of investors.
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