According to CNBC’s survey of 30 fund managers, strategists and economists, 93% of respondents expect the Fed to pause in October, while 76% forecast a rate hike in December. More than half anticipate two additional increases in 2026, and 40% believe the Federal Reserve must slow growth below its potential to curb inflation, which is viewed as broader than higher energy prices alone. Respondents forecast GDP growth of 2.4% in 2025, inflation of 3.6% in 2026 before easing to 2.6% in 2027, and a 26% risk of recession over the next twelve months. The average 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to remain above 5% in 2026 before easing to 4.8% in 2027, while the war in Iran and the potential bursting of the artificial-intelligence bubble are identified as the main risks. Finally, a majority expects Democrats to control both chambers of Congress, although 41% of respondents anticipate larger federal deficits.
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