The notional volume of crypto contracts traded on Kalshi and Polymarket reached a record $2.7 billion in a single week in mid-October 2026. Short-term Bitcoin bets were the main driver, with Kalshi’s Bitcoin contracts alone generating more than $2 billion. Polymarket’s US arm also recorded approximately $92 million to $101 million in weekly volume for its 15-minute Bitcoin contracts. The growth came amid a broader boom at Kalshi, which reached $19.03 billion in total contract volume between October 5 and 11 as crypto spot trading volumes declined. The rise of short-duration contracts indicates growing demand for rapid, speculative exposure to Bitcoin price movements, while Coinbase and other platforms seek to renew user engagement in prediction markets.
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