Bitcoin reached major lows 71 days after the 2015 elections, 38 days after the 2018 elections and 13 days after the 2022 elections. This timing corresponds more closely to its internal cycles, including programmed issuance reductions, than to a systematic election effect, particularly since technology stocks have not followed the same pattern. The associated fourth quarters produced returns of -16.7%, -42.16% and -14.75%, while post-midterm drawdowns ranged from 27% to 72%. On October 23, 2026, Bitcoin was trading between $82,000 and $84,000 after reaching a summer low near $58,000. The average cost basis of short-term holders, around $73,000, is a level to watch: a sustained move below it around November 3 could signal renewed volatility, although the gains recorded in the year after previous midterms do not represent a guaranteed rule.
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