Goldman Sachs estimates that AI could displace up to 9% of workers in developed economies, while slower hiring would affect another 3%, equivalent to roughly one in 11 workers. The estimate assumes a 15% productivity gain from AI and would add up to 15 million displaced U.S. jobs over a decade. Economist Joseph Briggs says technology-related labor disruption remains limited when the economy is healthy but accelerates during recessions. In the 25 occupations most affected by earlier technologies, employment declined by an average of 25% over the five years after starting to fall. AI-related layoffs remain limited for now because only 23% of U.S. establishments have incorporated AI into regular workflows and the labor market has remained resilient in 2026.
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