JPMorgan Asset Management published its first long-term forecast for Bitcoin, projecting a 10% compound annual return over 10 to 15 years. This estimate outpaces the bank’s projections for U.S. large-cap stocks (7.5%), gold (5.5%) and a classic 60/40 stock-bond portfolio (7%). However, Bitcoin exhibits 55% annualized volatility, which explains why the arithmetic average return of 20.9% drops significantly once large price swings are factored in. The bank did not include Bitcoin in its main portfolio models, citing high volatility and unstable correlations, and dismissed the argument that currency debasement would drive crypto adoption as “wide of the mark”.
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