JPMorgan Asset Management released its first long-term Bitcoin outlook, projecting a bullish case of $385,500 and a base case of $215,300 over ten years, with a bearish scenario at $25,300. The bank forecasts compound annual returns of 10% for Bitcoin, exceeding its 7.5% assumption for US large-cap stocks and 5.5% for gold, while estimating annualized volatility at 55%. This marks the first 10-year Bitcoin scenario analysis in the firm’s 31-year annual outlook history. The firm considers it premature to include Bitcoin in strategic portfolio allocations due to extreme volatility and unstable correlations. The analysis comes despite repeated criticism from CEO Jamie Dimon, who nevertheless authorized the bank to allow clients to purchase Bitcoin on their accounts.
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