Polymarket opened a market on Sunday allowing users to bet on France declaring a state of emergency, but the wager has attracted only about $23,700 in USDC. Traders assign just 16 % probability to this scenario before year-end and 3 % by Wednesday. On Saturday October 17, 550,000 protesters marched against the cost of living, leading to nearly 2,400 arrests and 997 injured police officers, while the Limoges city hall burned down. Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez nonetheless ruled out triggering a state of emergency as early as Saturday night. Polymarket has remained blocked in France since July by the ANJ regulator, which fines promotion of the site up to 100,000 euros.
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