Jack Clark, co-founder of Anthropic, told finance ministers and central bankers at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok that AI could push US GDP to about $44 trillion by 2030, from just over $30 trillion today. Anthropic released its economic scenarios explorer in September 2026, laying out three paths: modest ($34.1 trillion), substantial ($36.3 trillion) or extreme ($44.4 trillion, a 32.4% boost), with the latter assuming AI reaches high autonomy and recursively self-improving capabilities. Clark also moved up his forecast for when recursive self-improvement might arrive, now expecting it by 2027, which is the key variable separating the substantial and extreme outcomes. He paired the projection with a call for international regulatory cooperation and warned that the extreme scenario could bring significant unemployment spikes for knowledge workers.
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