The producer price index surged 1.3% monthly in September, more than double the 0.6% consensus and the biggest monthly gain since March 2022. Year-over-year, the index jumped to 6.3%, the largest increase since December 2022, driven by a 20% rise in gasoline prices. Even excluding food, energy and trade services, prices still rose a solid 0.5%, indicating inflation was broader than energy alone. Wall Street economists now forecast core PCE inflation to reach 3.1% year-over-year in September, up from 3.01% in August, reinforcing expectations for at least one more rate hike by December, with markets pricing a 91% probability.
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