Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warned on October 7 that strategic and commercial reserves that cushioned the Iran war shock have been exhausted, leaving the oil market more vulnerable to disruptions. U.S. diesel prices hit a record $6.53 per gallon on September 22, up from $3.76 before the conflict, with peaks above $8 in California. The International Energy Agency expects the diesel market to remain tight until the second half of 2027 and forecasts global oil supply to fall by an average of 5.8 million barrels per day this year. Donald Trump successively considered banning diesel exports, then abandoned the idea amid refiner opposition, before announcing a deal with Vladimir Putin for 4 million tons of Russian diesel, whose deliveries are however jeopardized by Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries.
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