Prediction markets are raising the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike on October 28, following the release of an inflation index that exceeded expectations. The US CPI reached 3.7% year-over-year, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Polymarket estimates a 63% probability of rates being held, compared to 61% for Kalshi and just 52.9% for the CME Group. A 25 basis point hike would bring rates into a range of 4% to 4.25%. Before the inflation figure was released, rate maintenance was favored at 80% on Kalshi.
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