Bitcoin options expiring Friday show $1.29 billion in outstanding positions with a put-to-call ratio of 1.43, indicating bearish positioning. Approximately $451 million in notional is concentrated at the $76,000, $78,000 and $80,000 put strikes, while seven-day implied volatility has declined to 32.01% from 34.5% a week earlier. The maximum pain calculation stands at $83,000, the settlement level that would minimize aggregate intrinsic value of outstanding options. Wednesday’s September US inflation report could revive expectations of another Federal Reserve rate increase, with December hike probabilities priced at approximately 85%.
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