Bitcoin has climbed approximately 35% from its August lows, rising from around $63,500 to a range of $83,000 to $84,000. During this period, futures open interest fell by nearly 20% in BTC terms, indicating a spot-driven movement rather than leverage. A major liquidation event occurred on August 19, 2026, with 85% of liquidations hitting short positions and open interest contracting by 11%. In October, Bitcoin settled in a range between $82,000 and $85,000, with ETF flows and institutional demand appearing to set the pace for the market. The lack of renewed derivatives participation limits the potential for sharp gains but also reduces the risk of liquidation cascades.
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