Saudi-backed Yemeni forces announced Friday they have regained control of Bab al-Mandab from Houthi forces. The strategic chokepoint on the Red Sea had been lost to the Houthis in September. The Iran-backed Houthi movement has not issued an immediate response to the announcement. Markets are interpreting this development as a setback for the Houthis, reducing the likelihood of their advance toward Aden. In the short term, the probability of Houthi forces entering Aden by October 31, 2026, has decreased from 8% to 7.5%, while longer-term projections by December 31, 2026, have declined from 28% to 24.5%.
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