The WTO has more than doubled its 2026 global trade growth forecast from 1.9% to 3.9%, reflecting surging demand for AI infrastructure. Semiconductors and servers alone account for nearly 47% of merchandise trade growth, with volumes jumping 67% year-on-year. AI infrastructure spending is projected to increase by at least 30% in 2026 and another 10-20% in 2027. However, the US-Israeli conflict with Iran since February has disrupted energy markets and weighed on services trade, whose forecast was revised down to 3.3%.
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