One year after its record of 126,000 dollars on October 6, 2025, bitcoin is down 32%, a much gentler decline than the 69.7%, 82.3%, and 74.6% observed one year after the peaks of 2013, 2017, and 2021. ETFs and reduced leverage have helped limit the drop, which only reached 53% at its lowest on June 30, 2026, compared to 77% to 85% in previous cycles. Bitcoin’s annualized volatility sits around 40%, down from over 80% historically, but the US 30-year Treasury yield has hit 5.7%, a level last seen in 2002, maintaining potential pressure on the market. The floor to watch remains that of June 30, 2026, around 58,900 dollars.
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