The New York Federal Reserve’s monthly survey shows that one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.9% in September, up 0.3 percentage point from August and the highest level since May 2023. Households also expect spending growth of 5.5%, up 0.3 percentage point month over month. The current federal funds rate targets 3.75% to 4%, with futures contracts implying a rate of 5.58% in five years. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady at its October meeting, with several officials indicating that monetary policy can afford a gradual approach.
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