Traders on prediction platform Kalshi now assign only a 20% probability to a US recession in 2027, an all-time low for this contract. The contract resolves based on two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027. This probability has dropped sharply from earlier peaks of 30% to 50%, driven by stronger economic data and a resilient labor market. The platform, founded in 2018 by MIT graduates Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, operates under the supervision of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The next quarterly GDP releases from the Bureau of Economic Analysis will be critical for the contract’s resolution.
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