According to the latest Datafolha polls, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads voting intentions for Brazil s 2026 presidential election with 42%, ahead of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro who has 38%. Neither candidate is expected to reach the critical 50% threshold required to win outright in the first round, making a runoff probable. The two candidates are nearly tied in simulated second-round matchups, highlighting the competitiveness and uncertainty of this electoral contest. Markets are already pricing in this likely runoff scenario in their expectations for the vote results.
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