The U.S. economy has proven more resilient than expected, absorbing shocks from President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the war with Iran, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in early October to curb inflation. Nominal GDP growth currently exceeds 6%, staying above the 5.16% 10-year yield and sustaining a $40 trillion national debt. Massive AI investment is fueling this momentum: hyperscaler capital expenditures are projected to reach $870 billion in 2026, up from $470 billion in 2025, and surpass $1.3 trillion in 2027. However, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warns that with Treasury rates around 5% and expected nominal GDP growth closer to 4%, the U.S. is entering a debt spiral that could trigger a major fiscal crisis.
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