Russia has raised its 2026 crude oil export forecast to 244.7 million tons, an increase of 7.5 million tons from its May estimate. The rise stems from declining production, forecast at 494.2 million tons in 2026, the lowest since 2009, as drone strikes have damaged refineries and cut domestic processing capacity. Refined product exports are expected to drop by 27.3 million tons compared to 2025, roughly a 22 percent decline, as Russia prioritizes domestic fuel supply. Surplus crude is being shipped primarily to China and India, while production forecasts for 2026 through 2029 have been cut by 16 to 20 million tons. These shifts could put upward pressure on global refining margins and intensify competition in Asian markets.
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