The Federal Reserve publishes its dot plot quarterly, a chart showing the interest rate projections of its 19 FOMC members. After the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, the median projection for end of 2026 stands at 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, with expectations of 3.6% by end of 2027 and 3.4% by end of 2028. Core PCE inflation is forecast at 3.3% in 2026, still above the Fed’s 2% target, while real GDP growth is expected at 2.2% and unemployment at 4.3%. This hawkish shift means the Fed has no near-term plans for rate cuts, maintaining tighter monetary conditions for longer. The next dot plot update will be released at the September FOMC meeting.
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