The 10-year US Treasury yield crossed the 5% psychological threshold on September 14, hitting an intraday high of 5.012%, the highest level since 2007. A Bloomberg survey found that roughly 30% of investors believe a yield in the 5% to 5.25% range could trigger a 10% correction in equity markets. However, when yields briefly crossed 5% in late 2023, the S&P 500 went on to hit record highs with surging corporate profits and record household wealth. Oil prices have climbed above $100 per barrel due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, feeding into inflation expectations and putting upward pressure on yields. Wall Street remains divided, with some betting on market resilience while others warn of a potential pullback.
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