The International Energy Agency once again cut its global oil supply and demand forecasts for the remainder of the year, warning that a full recovery in flows from Middle East producers has been deferred until 2026 due to the Iran war. World oil supply is expected to decline by 5.7 million bpd in 2026, about 6% lower than 2025, compared to a previously forecast annual drop of 4%. Global oil demand is expected to fall by 2.5 million bpd this year, significantly more than the 1.6 million bpd decline forecast in August, amid stalled diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran and renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea’s Bab el-Mandeb. Brent crude traded around $104 per barrel and WTI around $100 per barrel, potentially ending the week above $100 for the first time since mid-May.
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