Michael Froman, former US Trade Representative and current president of the Council on Foreign Relations, is warning that China’s growth model built on flooding global markets with cheap goods is approaching a structural wall. China’s goods trade surplus swelled to nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025, growing at roughly three times the pace of global goods trade. Chinese vehicle exports, led by electric vehicles, climbed 21% in 2025 to reach $142 billion, while lithium-ion battery shipments hit $77 billion. The IMF projects global economic growth at just 3.1% for 2026, a rate insufficient to absorb Chinese exports growing at triple the global pace. This widening gap creates significant risks for sectors deeply integrated with Chinese manufacturing, including consumer electronics, automotive, and renewable energy.
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