Expectations for a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16 exceed 50 % on prediction markets, following Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance and a stronger-than-expected US jobs report. ChatGPT predicts an initial XRP reaction between -4 % and -8 % in case of a 25 basis point increase, which would push the price below $1.30, with $1.20 as the first major support level. If Warsh takes an even more restrictive approach, XRP could drop to $1.05-$1.15, especially given that the CLARITY Act process was delayed again in August. Spot XRP ETFs represent the main bullish factor, potentially enabling a rebound toward $1.50-$1.60 if the Fed signals no immediate second rate increase.
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