Experts warn that escalating threats to civilian aircraft could trigger a deadly conflict in Ukraine. The unresolved Russia-Ukraine conflict, ongoing since the 2022 invasion, risks further Russian territorial gains without a diplomatic resolution. Tensions are compounded by increased drone activity and long-range aerial strikes from both sides. Markets are reacting by adjusting the probability of Russian territorial advances, particularly for specific Ukrainian cities by December 31, 2026. Observers should monitor military movements and diplomatic efforts that could alter the current trajectory of the conflict.
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