Sugar prices have climbed nearly 30% in five weeks, reaching 18.15 cents per pound on Thursday, the highest level since April 2025. Three supply shocks have driven the rally: Brazilian mills have redirected cane toward ethanol as crude oil prices rose (Brent near $94 per barrel), Center-South Brazil sugar output fell 26.3% year-on-year in June, and India banned exports before allowing one million tonnes of duty-free imports. Forecasters now project a global deficit of 1.7 to 3.2 million tonnes for 2026/27, reversing June expectations of a surplus. Technically, resistance sits at 19.48 cents per pound, and crowded speculative positioning leaves the market vulnerable to a sharp reversal.
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