US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the strategic Strait of Hormuz would be « worthless » within two years. This declaration comes amid ongoing tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran over control of this critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. Despite a ceasefire and interim deals earlier this year, the region has experienced heightened military activity. Market pricing indicates a decrease in the probability of a U.S.-Iran agreement, as evidenced by declining YES odds across relevant markets. Observers will monitor developments in the U.S.-Iran dialogue as well as data from shipping insurers and PortWatch regarding transit patterns.
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