Donald Trump announced that the US Navy has cleared all mines from the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime passage between Iran and Oman. Despite this claim, the international body responsible for monitoring ship safety continues to advise vessels to proceed with caution in the area. The prediction market focusing on the possibility of zero ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by August 31 has reacted to Trump’s statement, with the implied probability for a complete halt in shipping activity declining from 33% to 10.5%. Key actors involved include Mohammad Ali Jafari of the IRGC and US CENTCOM Commander Michael Kurilla.
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