Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has stated that the ongoing war has exacerbated the country’s fuel shortage, with disruptions to imports and refining capacity. The shortages have led to long queues at petrol stations and discussions of possible rationing with stricter quotas. Market pricing suggests a 16.5% probability of Pezeshkian stepping down by year-end, up from 14% a week earlier. The likelihood of Iran agreeing to halt uranium enrichment by year-end is estimated at 13.5%.
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