Europe is importing diesel from Mexico for the first time in seven years amid a deepening supply crisis. European middle distillate imports from the Gulf fell to 40,000 barrels per day in May 2026, the lowest level in a decade. Russian diesel exports have collapsed to roughly 234,000 barrels per day as of early July 2026, down from an average of 817,000 barrels per day in 2025, a decline exceeding 70 percent. Mexico’s Olmeca refinery has resumed diesel exports after roughly a decade of inactivity, shipping an average of 36,000 barrels per day between August 2025 and February 2026. Morgan Stanley projects European diesel inventories could drop to approximately 299 million barrels by November 2026, a multi-year low at a time when demand typically increases ahead of winter.
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