According to Reuters calculations, nearly half of global oil production originates from conflict zones. Brent crude is trading around $86.27 per barrel amid ongoing disruptions in production and refining capacities. Prediction markets show a 1.6% probability of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by September 30, rising to 11.5% by December 31. These figures underscore the significant impact of geopolitical tensions on the global oil market and future supply risks.
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