U.S. President Donald Trump stated that America is « winning very big » its conflict with Iran, emphasizing the effectiveness of economic sanctions and military strikes. Tensions are centered around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil shipments. The U.S. is enforcing sanctions and maintaining a naval blockade, while Iran insists the strait remains closed and diplomatic talks have stalled. Market expectations reflect only a 15.5% probability of a deal being reached, including reconstruction funding.
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