Bernstein expects Bitcoin to reclaim $125,000 by late 2026 before reaching $300,000 in 2029 under its base case, with a bull case of $500,000. The cryptocurrency gained 28% over 10 days after falling about 50% from its October 2025 peak. Increased institutional participation has provided greater downside support and contributed to a smaller drawdown compared to the 75% to 90% declines of previous cycles. The firm maintained a longer-term target of about $1 million by 2033. Bernstein also maintained its « Outperform » rating on Strategy, which holds 840,447 BTC, equivalent to about 4% of Bitcoin’s maximum supply.
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