US inflation reached 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with energy prices surging 14.7% annually. Despite a slight monthly decline in energy costs, annual figures remain elevated, driven by rising gasoline and fuel oil prices. This energy-driven inflation is weighing on household budgets and influencing market expectations for crude oil. Prediction markets price the probability of a new crude oil all-time high at 1.8% by September 30 and 11.5% by December 31.
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