The U.S. is unlikely to win its ‘dumb trade war’ with Canada. Here’s why

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The Trump administration imposed 50% tariffs on a wide range of Canadian imports by invoking Section 338 of a 1930 law, though the measure only affects 5% of Canadian imports due to constitutional limits on presidential power. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, with an approval rating around 60%, has turned each U.S. attack into a rallying cry, as Canadians now view the United States as a greater threat than Russia or China according to a Nanos Research Group survey. Economically, Canada holds a financing advantage with a 4.2% borrowing rate over 30 years versus 5.3% for comparable U.S. Treasury yields, while the country diversifies trade by welcoming companies like Chinese EV giant BYD. The Canadian American Business Council estimates that successful renegotiation of the trade agreement could create 137,000 additional U.S. jobs and 98,000 Canadian jobs.

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