The US energy secretary announced that the country’s oil and gas production has reached unprecedented levels. According to EIA data, crude oil production hit 13.93 million barrels per day in April 2026, while natural gas production peaked at 136 billion cubic feet per day in December 2025. This surge in supply is impacting market expectations, with the probability of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by September 30 dropping from 3% to 2.2%. Analysts are closely watching geopolitical developments and OPEC decisions that could shift these probabilities.
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