According to blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket, Democrats hold an 88% probability of winning the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections, with a narrower 51% edge in the Senate. The Senate race remains genuinely competitive, with Democrats holding just a one-point edge over the implied 50/50 baseline. Polymarket’s balance-of-power combination markets point to a split government as the most likely outcome, priced in the 38-48% range for a Republican Senate and Democratic House scenario. Trading volumes lend credibility to these numbers: $4-9 million on the House market and $2-4 million on the Senate market.
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