A study published under the Vera Research label analyzed 476,000 news-to-market pairings on Polymarket, covering 618 news sources over a 56-day period. Only 15.2% of news stories trigger a price movement in a related prediction market contract within one hour of publication. Major financial wires produced move rates below this average, while specialist accounts and niche sources consistently exceeded it. The gap across topics is even more pronounced: certain subject categories trigger market movements at three to five times the rate of others.
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