A fire broke out at the Novoil-Oufaneftekhim refinery in Ufa, Russia, as part of a long-range Ukrainian strike targeting strategic energy infrastructure. This attack follows a series of similar operations by Ukraine against energy facilities on Russian territory, particularly in the Republic of Bashkortostan. Prediction markets for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026, have seen their odds decline, reflecting a probability of just 21.5%. This escalation illustrates the growing difficulties in achieving a diplomatic resolution in the near term.
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