Prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi and Myriad are converging on roughly a 74% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates unchanged at its September meeting. Polymarket shows 74% odds for no change, 25% for a quarter-point hike and about 1% for a cut, with $33.9 million in volume traded. The federal funds rate sets the baseline borrowing cost and influences investment decisions across financial markets. Bitcoin and Ethereum have wavered around recent Fed decisions, with the central bank holding rates between 3.50% and 3.75% in July. The FOMC meets September 15-16, with its statement due September 16.
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