Traders on the Kalshi platform estimate a 74% likelihood that Paramount will acquire Warner Bros. Discovery by July 2027, compared to 22% odds of failure. Before the lawsuit filed on July 13 by California and 11 other states to block the merger, success odds exceeded 80%. The likelihood dropped to 66% on July 24 when Paramount announced it would delay the acquisition to 2027. On Polymarket, the odds are similar with a 23% probability of failure. A trial is scheduled for March 2027 and the merger termination date is set for March 4, 2027, extendable to June 4, 2027 if only regulatory obstacles remain. If the deal does not close by September 30, Paramount will owe 25 cents per share, per quarter to Warner Bros. shareholders.
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